I refuse to write an "Are You Worried Yet" column about the Red Sox right now. First of all, it’s too early. Secondly, I think boston.com already has the market cornered on asking people if they’re worried about stupid things…"The Pats are 0-2 in the preseason! Are you worried they might miss the Playoffs!?! Vote now!!"
So yeah, not going to do that. Although what I AM going to do is probably just as lame. I’ll just be less direct in my lameness… and here’s my question:
So if we’re not worried about the Sox yet… How long before we have to START worrying? At what point do we have to stop making excuses and work up the courage to stand up and admit: "There is a very good chance my Boston Red Sox are going lose the AL East to the Tampa Bay Rays. Yes. That’s right. The Tampa. Bay. Effing. Rays."?
Now this isn’t going to be a reactionary, off-the-cuff brain fart, conceived while the Sox were getting swept this weekend. The Blue Jays series didn’t bother me that much. After all, Roy Halladay could shutout the American Dreams at this point—he’s the filthiest pitcher in baseball—and even though yesterday was gross, I’m more likely to chalk it up as just a really bad day for a really good pitcher than as a sign that the ship’s about to spring a leak the size of Tony Gwynn.
The question of "worry" when it comes to this Red Sox team isn’t necessarily a matter of "Are they good enough to catch the Rays?" I know that they are. But as the season trucks along—and that number next to Boston’s name in the standings continues to hang around four or five—there’ll be a point when you’ll have to ask: "They might be good enough to catch them, but do they have enough time?"
We’ve spent the last few months in a state of quiet confidence. I think the majority of Bostonians are, under the surface, far less cocky as sports fans since the Super Bowl—I’m sure the rest of the country might disagree, but if you live in the area, you can definitely feel it. We learned our lesson about what can happen when you suspend all belief that your team can or will lose. We don’t want to take the Rays lightly. We want to convince ourselves that there’s a chance Tampa runs the table; that they’re a legitimate contender. But deep down, gun to head, I think we’re all still waiting for the Rays to wake up and remember who they are. "You’re not the Rays… you’re the fricking DEVIL Rays! You’re not winners… you lose! You don’t play in the post-season… you play in a dome so pathetic that balls actually bounce off the ceiling! You play third grade gym class Wiffle ball! You aren’t supposed to be here! Wake up!"
But the truth is, unless one of these two things (or both) happens over the next couple of weeks…
1. The Sox hit one of their patented August strides and rip of something like 11 out of 13 games.
or
2. Tampa crumbles under the pressure of a Pennant Race and a slew of major injuries…
we’ll have to start wondering if the Sox have what it takes to catch the Rays.
(Note: Could "Catch the Rays" be 2008’s Squish the Fish-esque rally cry? Can’t you imagine some weirdo at Fenway selling t-shirts with Catch The Rays written on top and then a picture of all the Red Sox wearing sunglasses on the bottom? Wow, actually that’s the worst idea I’ve ever had. Forget I said anything.)
So how long before we should all officially start getting a little crazy about the fate of this season?
I’ve worked out all the math in my head, and the answer is clear: 25 Days.
If the Sox haven’t taken command of this thing by September 12, I’ll personally give the panic button a flying head butt.
What first got my attention about the stretch between now and 9/12 was the schedule. Of the 21 games during that time, 12 of them are on the road—they play four three-game series at Baltimore, Toronto, New York and Texas—and the Sox road record this season has been undeniably awful. They need to prove they can win big games away from Fenway. Between August 18-28, the Sox play nine straight games on the road. Over that same period, the Rays play six of nine game at the Trop. Chances are they’ll be winning. If Boston isn’t doing their part on the road, the lead could be seven games by September..
But the most important aspect of this 25-day grace period I’ve granted the team appears at the end:
September 8-10, Tampa Bay @ Boston.
This is the series that will set the tone for the rest of the season. There are only two possible scenarios heading in, and only one acceptable result.
1. The Sox haven’t caught the Rays yet, in which case this is their opportunity to do so.
2. The Sox have already caught the Rays, in which case this is their opportunity to take them out behind the barn and shoot them; to put forth a performance so dominating and demoralizing that the Rays can’t recover; that they run back home with their tails between their legs and into the arms of Dickie V.
So while the season won’t be over on September 12, I think it’s fair to say that we’ll have a lot better understanding of the 2008 Red Sox by then. And I’m anointing it the official opening day of the "You Are Jusified In Freaking Out About The Red Sox" season.
If they can’t make the move then, we have to start wondering if they’ll have enough time to do it at all. Or at the very least, if the morning of September 12 comes along, and the Sox are still four and a half games out, maybe that’s when I’ll finally work up the courage to stand up and admit: "There is a very good chance my Boston Red Sox are going lose the AL East to the Tampa Bay Rays. Yes. That’s right. The Tampa. Bay. Effing. Rays."
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